Sure, it will pay a hefty price for its debt woes. But the city-state's open economy has attracted legions of foreign investors and serves as a model for its Gulf neighbors Dubai — After Dubai announced in late November that the state-controlled investment firm Dubai World was seeking to reschedule payments on some $26 billion of debt, global markets went into a tailspin. While foreign bourses quickly rebounded, local shares have taken a pounding, and the credibility of Dubai's leadership has suffered serious damage. Yet lost in all the drama is the fact that Dubai is an important economic experiment in a strategically vital region. The humiliating debt implosion aside, the emirate remains the most dynamic business hub in the Gulf and has become a model for its neighbors.
In a region of conservative, autocratic countries long chained to the boom-and-bust cycles of the oil industry, Dubai stands out for creating an open economy that has diversified well beyond energy. With nowhere near the oil and gas reserves of other Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, it had to. "Dubai shows that if you are part of the global economy, you do well; you don't have to have oil," says David Aaron, director of the RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy in Washington.
There's no denying that the emirate overreached and will pay a hefty price. Dubai led the region in allowing outsiders to own property, opening up its real estate market to foreign investment in 2003, and created a mortgage industry to finance their purchases. But lax rules ushered in wild speculation. With real estate prices rising at a double-digit annual clip, investors made a killing buying apartments with low deposits and quickly flipping them. Then when the credit crunch came, buyers fled and developers saw their cash flow dry up. Hardest hit was Nakheel, a subsidiary of Dubai World that created the iconic palm island real estate development off the coast. It has about $8 billion in debt and $13 billion in other liabilities such as bills from suppliers, Barclays Capital (BCS) reports.
Dubai's leadership has doubtless mishandled the recent turmoil. The emirate's debt problems have been looming for at least a year, but ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum has made little progress in coming to grips with the challenge. As recently as October, Dubai raised nearly $2 billion in new money through an Islamic bond issue. Asked about the emirate's ability to pay its debts, Sheikh Mohammed told reporters: "I assure you, we are all right."
Part of the problem is that while Dubai is more open than its neighbors, it's no Jeffersonian democracy. It is dominated by a handful of people, and their decision-making and finances remain opaque. The debt crisis illustrates that. Until recently, no one knew how much debt Dubai had and which state-linked companies it might back in a crunch. Just as murky was the extent to which its wealthier neighbors, chiefly Abu Dhabi, were willing to bail it out. Investors who had assumed the best got spooked when it appeared Dubai couldn't meet its obligations. "To lower the perception of risk, Dubai must become more transparent quickly," says Matthew Vogel, head of emerging markets research at Barclays Capital in London.
Hassle-Free Business Climate
Nonetheless, Dubai remains the region's nimblest competitor. It is a tolerant and comfortable base for anyone seeking a foothold in the Arab world, and today Americans, Europeans, Asians, and Middle Easterners work side-by-side in the senior ranks of its big companies. Salaries are high, and there's no personal income tax. Luxury apartment buildings abound, many of them weekend getaways for residents of neighboring states who flock to Dubai to enjoy lavish restaurants and bars often filled with available young women. Then there's all that famous froth such as the indoor ski slope, the sail-shaped Burj Al Arab hotel on the beachfront, and the world's tallest building, the soon-to-open Burj Dubai.
Beneath all the glitz, though, Dubai has become a place where serious business gets done. While the city-state has just 1.6 million residents and a gross domestic product of $80 billion, it is the business gateway for a region with a $1 trillion economy, millions of eager young consumers, and hundreds of billions of petrodollars to invest. Microsoft (MSFT), General Electric (GE), Cisco Systems (CSCO), and a host of other A-list multinationals have flocked to Dubai because of its open culture, top-notch infrastructure, and hassle-free business climate.
And virtually every leading investment bank is present in the Dubai International Financial Center, a lavish gray-granite complex with ornate fountains built on what was a desolate patch of sand just a few years ago. A big draw is the emerging market for Islamic financial services, which has become a $1 trillion business globally. "Dubai will continue to lay the foundations for sustainable growth," says Michael Geoghegan, group chief executive of HSBC, the leading lender in the United Arab Emirates with $611 million in loans out to Dubai World. "I am confident that Dubai and the U.A.E. will overcome any short-term issues they face."
